Hi I am in the seacoast area of New Hampshire and over the last five or so years, I really believe that we have seen a general increase in wind conditions, both in average wind speeds and in days per year that are windy versus not windy. This is borne out in conversations with pilots at our local airports, and in fact, our banner towing company of one pilot maintains that it has become a significant financial problem as he loses money if the wind is too strong, and in a seasonal environment like we have here in the northeast, if you lose a day of towing, you don't usually get it back. During some of the years being discussed, I had a Dakota Hawk, seems to me I always felt a conversational number for it was 1000 pounds with two people, and it was all in all a good plane, but heavy crosswind days were problematic and less enjoyable so some days were lost to wind with that plane. Now I am building a Mini Max and more and more I am wondering how much truth there is to what I see as a significant increase in wind conditions on a larger geographical scale, as it will have a much more significant affect on my flying a fat ultralight that it did with a slightly light two seat experimental. I am looking to find out what others are experiencing and seeing in terms of wind conditions throughout the country, and are ultralight/fat ultralights less and less able to fly due to wind. The internet didn't yield an answer to my global wind increase questions, not I a ten minute effort anyway. So comments from all are appreciated. Take care, keep up the good dialogues. Kim Brown
Well Kim, you sound like a Republican who, for some reason, has been forced to suddenly believe in climate change.
Personally, I have no doubt that the weather trends where I live have completely changed over the last 25 years. That said - one truth that has not changed is the fact that flying an aircraft that weighs less than 600 lbs. with me on-board is, basically, ultralight flying.
In the first couple years I was basically terrified to take my plane up in anything over five knots of wind. Over time I began to understand low-mass high-drag flight, the relatively high power-to-weight ratio of my plane, and it's amazing controllability. I then began to understand that wind is relative. Each aircraft (and pilot) has it's limits, and the conditions you are willing to fly in depend upon how much discomfort you are willing to suffer, and how much you are willing to risk damaging yourself and/or the aircraft.
To date, the most horrific wind I personally have been caught out in is gusts to 27 Kts. That is enough to get your attention and also cause a bit of damage to the ole' anal sphincter! But it left me with the knowledge that, If I am on my toes, the plane can handle it.
I think everyone flying an aircraft like this should occasionally put themselves into conditions that test one's confidence, level-of-comfort, and skill level. We will normally be flying on days that don't even get the attention of a Cessna driver, but cause us to consider we may just be a bit crazy. That's the ultralight life.
It may be, but I think those of us that fly pay more attention to the weather and probably even more to the wind. We still get days in a row here of mostly calm wind , and most spring,summer, fall evenings are quiet. We have some very windy days as well....so it goes. Fly when you can. I believe the Earths climate is always changing, and has since its creation. Larry
a mile of road will take you a mile, a mile of runway can take you anywhere.
Is the wind, on average stronger, than it was a few decades ago? Maybe. According to data from NOAA, the winds were stronger (on average) in 1968 than in 2016. That's not an excuse to go back to being wasteful, or to disregard climate factors in our lives, but it is certainly interesting information.
Could Bill have responded without bringing politics into the discussion... maybe.
Looking back at my post, I don't see that it sounded like a republican who had been forced to suddenly believe in climate change, perhaps you wanted it to sound that way?
My basic motivation was to find out what wind change, if any, have general aviation and u/l aviation practitioners been witnessing in recent years throughout the country. When built, I'm presuming my Max and I will be around 315(a/c) + 210(me)= 525 pounds, with 35+- horse, in the neighborhood of 15lb/hp, certainly not what I would consider a high power to weight ratio as you indicated you have. Nor is it really the data point to look at here I suppose, I guess just plain old weight is the issue, but anyway, I was looking for feedback on wind in general. Thank you. Kim Brown
The annual mean wind speed as measured at the Blue Hill Observatory has dropped by more than ten percent over the last thirty years. After remaining in a range of 15-16 mph for much of the last century, the annual average wind speed began a slow decline in the mid-20th century that has steepened significantly since 1980 to a record low value for any year of 12.6 mph in 2008.
Barton points out that global wind speeds have decreased by some 5 to 15 percent over the last three decades, and are expected to decrease another 15 perfect in the coming century. You’ve heard of global warming? Get ready for “global stilling.”
Increasing amounts of vegetation could be causing up to 60% of a slowing in wind speed across the Northern Hemisphere, according to researchers analysing three decades of wind-speed data in Nature Geoscience1 today.
A recent study found significant differences between the changes predicted by four global climate models (GCMs) that used two IPCC emission scenarios, both in sign and magnitude, but nonetheless concluded that a warmed climate may reduce the spring and summer wind power resources of the Northwest U.S.
Sorry, the political jibe was just meant as humor, not a personal accusation. My point was really concerning the general perception that often accompanies a pilot who is just building or flying one of these planes for the first time. I know I hadn't really understood what I would be facing, having no lightweight flying experience (except a gyroplane which is an entirely different animal), until I actually started flying it.
Once I did start I realized that I was going to have an entirely different relationship with wind, than I had had while flying factory airplanes. I may have mistakenly perceived an underlying concern that you might be having second thoughts about this type of flying. My apologies if that was the case.
My general inquiry into wind as perceived by persons across the country stems from a couple of things, yes, concern as a builder of a "lighter than the last one" aircraft, that I might in fact be going in the wrong direction, but secondly, it really seemed to me and other pilots in my area that the wind was increasing both in mph and in hours per day/wk/year. I am very surprised at the info and sources posted by another individual indicating that in the big picture, the opposite is true, a slowing. It would still be nice if more people chimed in from across the US indicating what they have perceived as any changes in winds over the past 5-10 years, and any change it may have made in their pleasure flying habits. Thanks to all for the contributions and I look forward to hearing more comments. Kim Brown
Regarding someone's political suggestion, I believe that for at least a decade both sides of the aisle have been a huge embarrassment, so to suggest anyone fell on either side of the aisle could be considered insulting.
I live on the east coast of the South Island of New Zealand and we are subject to a lot of wind, particularly in Spring/summer. but although I have been flying for 30 years I cannot remember a summer as bad as this one for wind - a series of fronts following one after the other bringing firstly nor-westers (a real no-no for flying) and then southerlies. I have two aircraft sitting in the hangar - building a third (the Himax) and beginning to wonder if I will ever be able to fly such a light aircraft on a regular basis. I dont mind up to 15 knots of wind, but after that it ceases to be enjoyable, and that is why we fly - to have fun. You almost have to tell yourself that if the weather is ok you will go flying - no matter what other perceived priorities you may have - otherwise it just wont happen.
There are bound to be local variations in the wind strength, duration, and frequency. The snapshot look I did of 1968 and 2016 showed that the areas of strong winds had moved. Which I though was cool. The data provided by redfordc was really interesting - THANKS!
Here's hoping Jetranger has more flying days this year.
Down here, west coast of Perú, i can say we have experienced lately some days of very strong winds not common in this area, however daily winds are about the same. I fly my 1600R on early or late Hours where winds are at minimum and the day light is the best. Winter time is the calmest for winds but usually overcast celings from 500 to 1000 . Anyway you can fly 90% of the time in this area .
How do you judge. The farmers around me have cut out almost all of the trees in a 3 mile radius around me. It seems that I have a lot more wind. In the thirties we did not have runways on most of our fields. They were often just mowed square maybe 40 acres and you just landed into the flag so wind was as much a problem. I remember in 1946 about our spring. My aunt (partners in an airport) claimed that the spring had been a wet one and they lost a lot of business and I claimed we had a dry spring and had a brisk season in Cleveland. My aunts field was in Sandusky only 63 miles away. What can you surmise from that?
Snug up that seat belt and land head on into the wind .....if you can. RonC
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